Economic News Will Be Upbeat in November
Posted October 27, 2009CONSUMER FINANCIAL BALANCE: The Consumer Balance Index (CBI), which tracks consumer perception of the balance between their assets and income versus debt and spending obligations, rebounds from its September recession low of 73 to reach 79 in October 2009.
With their financial balances improved, consumers are more willing to spend freely in October than in September.
| Consumer Balance Index | |||||
| Aug 2009 |
Sept 2009 |
Oct 2009 |
Diff. Aug-Sep |
Diff. Sep-Oct |
|
| CONSUMER BALANCE INDEX (CBI) | 78 | 73 | 79 | -5 | +6 |
| Consumer willingness to spend freely for consumables INDEX |
76 | 71 | 77 | -5 | +6 |
| Percent Spending Freely On… | |||||
| Clothing | 66% | 70% | 65% | +4 | -5 |
| Food | 59% | 64% | 59% | +5 | -5 |
| Gas | 58% | 54% | 56% | -4 | +2 |
| Medical Expenses | 73% | 64% | 69% | -9 | +5 |
| Major Good Active Shopping Index |
100% | 96% | 99% | -4 | +3 |
| Percent Actively Shopping For… | |||||
| New Car | 7% | 5% | 3% | -2 | -2 |
| Used Car | 9% | 9% | 9% | - | -2 |
| House | 6% | 4% | 5% | -2 | +1 |
| Furniture | 9% | 9% | 10% | - | +! |
| Personal Computers | 11% | 9% | 9% | -2 | - |
| Major Appliances | 7% | 7% | 8% | - | +1 |
| New Carpeting | 2% | 4% | 3% | +2 | -1 |
| Color TV | 5% | 6% | 9% | +1 | +3 |
| Air Travel | 19% | 19% | 21% | - | +2 |
| Overnight Hotel/Motel | 20% | 19% | 20% | -1 | +1 |
COMMENT
The Consumer Balance Index measures consumer perception of the balance between their assets and income versus debt and spending. It reflects confidence in their personal rather than in the nation’s financial situation.
The good news about the October improvement in consumer willingness to spend anticipates good news about consumer spending showing up in November’s press, just as the bad news about the September decline in consumer willingness to spend showed up in October’s press reports.
TO ASK QUESTIONS request detailed data, make suggestions or offer your projections of the future, phone Leo J. Shapiro, CEO SAGE: Survival and Growth Enterprises LLC. He can be reached in Tucson at 520-878-0188.
Copyright October 2009 by Leo J. Shapiro – All Rights Reserved.